Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The average number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. But, public safety specialists have warned that homicide numbers could fail to point to better national safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded in these past months is very notable,” the President said, noting that last month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it might mask periods when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Using the daily average makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst concluded.